Center Street PAC released new polls for several U.S. Senate races today. With just over six weeks until the 2022 midterm elections, voters in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia say they will vote for Democratic candidates over Republican candidates who have taken extreme positions on a host of issues. However, in Florida and Utah, Republican senators still maintain their leads over their challengers.
Candidate Quality Plays Significant Role
With several Republican Senate candidates taking extremist “MAGA” positions, traditional red state/blue state expectations are invalid.
“People might see Mark Kelly’s wide lead and scoff because Arizona has traditionally been a Republican stronghold, but there’s nothing traditional about Blake Masters, so it’s not a typical race,” said Center Street Co-Founder Jacob Perry. “It’s not hard to imagine why the people who elected John McCain would vastly prefer a retired U.S. Navy captain-astronaut, over a guy who has literally been endorsed by neo Nazis.”
Center Street polling shows a losing trend for several Republican Senate and gubernatorial candidates who have openly taken extremist positions.
“Republicans who espouse the most troubling extremist positions are losing in voter preference and favorability. But in the same state, we’ll see leads among Republicans who aren’t moderate, but definitely less openly extreme,” said Center Street Co-Founder Matt O’Brien. “After several rounds of polling, it’s not a fluke. It’s a correlation.”
Senate Poll Results: Arizona, Utah, Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania
Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly widened his lead over Republican challenger Blake Masters, 55% to 35% among likely voters, with 9% undecided. Among registered voters, Kelly leads 53% to 32%, with 15% undecided.
Republican Sen. Mike Lee leads independent Evan McMullin 43% to 39% among likely voters, and 40% to 37% among Utah registered voters. Lee’s advantage has narrowed since Center Street’s July 13 poll, which showed Lee at 49% among likely voters, compared to McMullin’s 37%. Among registered voters, Lee now leads by only 3%, compared to a 10% margin in July. The number of undecided likely voters has also shifted since July, increasing from 14% to 18%.
“In each of the three polls we’ve conducted in the Utah Senate race, McMullin has made gains in awareness, favorability and preference, while Lee failed to improve in awareness or favorability,” said Center Street Chief Analytics Officer Dr. Kurt Jetta.
“Mike Lee’s only getting 63% of Republican voters right now. Most candidates, especially sitting senators, are receiving 85% or more of their party vote,” said O’Brien. “It shows how much of the electorate is still up for grabs in this race. Although to be fair, with so many undecideds in a heavily Republican state, like Utah, those voters could break for Lee.”
Republican Senator Marco Rubio leads Democratic Congresswoman Val Demings, 50% to 45% among likely voters, with 4% undecided. Among registered voters, Rubio leads 48% to 40%, with 12% undecided. Demings gained slight ground since Center Street’s August poll, when Rubio led 51% to 42% among likely voters, with 7% undecided.
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) leads Republican Herschel Walker 49% to 45% among likely voters, with 7% undecided. However, that gap jumps among registered voters, with Warnock leading 50% to 37%, with 14% undecided.
Walker’s support trends similarly to other MAGA-associated Republicans in most areas, with a couple of exceptions. He’s holding Republican support better than some other candidates, and Georgia Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats. However, Warnock will likely hold his seat.
“Herschel is trailing two to one among independents, and he’s very unpopular overall. If Sen. Warnock loses, it will be because he left a ton of support on the table,” says Perry.
Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz continues to trail Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. Fetterman leads 55% to 36% among likely voters, with 9% undecided. Among registered voters, Fetterman leads 51% to 33%, with 15% undecided.
Center Street has developed an unparalleled data set, led by Dr. Jetta. A 30-year innovator in consumer analytics and former CEO of TABS Analytics, Dr. Jetta applies his consumer analysis developments to political analysis, allowing Center Street to determine and choose a select number of winnable races.
Center Street is a nonpartisan super PAC designed to combat the destructive tribalism threatening democracy by supporting credible candidates, regardless of political party, against extremist challengers and incumbents. Founded by former Republican strategist Jacob Perry and private businessman Matt O’Brien, Center Street advocates for the election of candidates who demonstrate stable and effective governing policies.
Graphs, Methodologies & Analytical Notes
Arizona Analytical Notes: 1. All data is now weighted both by age/gender and 2020 voting preference. 2. All results will have 2020 stated voter preference aligned with actual (49% Biden/49%Trump) 3. Sample is augments for respondents aged 75 years and older, to reduce the weighting required for this hard-to-reach cohort.
Utah Analytical Notes: 1. All data is now weighted both by age/gender and 2020 voting preference. 2. All results will have 2020 stated voter preference aligned with actual preference (50% Biden/49%Trump) 3. MOE for each individual measure is 3.5%.
Florida Analytical Notes: 1. All data is now weighted both by age/gender and 2020 voting preference. All results will have 2020 stated voter preference aligned with actual preference (48% Biden/51%Trump) 2. Sample is augmented for respondents aged 75 years and older, to reduce weighting required for this hard-to-reach cohort. 3. Note there is a slight change in prior preference results due to weighting against all 2020 voters rather than just those registered. 4. Also, adjustments in rounding rules caused slight changes.
Georgia Analytical Notes: 1. All data is now weighted both by Age/Gender and 2020 voting preference. 2. All results will have 2020 Stated Voter Preference aligned with Actual (49% Biden/49%Trump) 3. Sample is augmented for respondents aged 75 years and older, so that we can reduce the weighting required for this hard-to-reach cohort.
Pennsylvania Analytical Notes: 1. All data is now weighted both by age/gender and 2020 voting preference. 2. All results will have 2020 stated voter preference aligned with actual preference (50% Biden/49%Trump)