POLL: Tim Ryan Leads J.D. Vance 49% to 38% Among Likely Voters in Ohio’s U.S. Senate Race

COLUMBUS, Ohio – (Aug. 4 2022) – A new poll from Center Street PAC, a non-partisan political action committee, shows Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) leads Republican J.D. Vance 49% to 38%, among Likely Voters, with 12% undecided. The numbers continue the upward trend in support for Ryan, whose lead over Vance among Likely Voters widened by 8 points, since a July 2022 poll.

While Ryan saw increases in awareness and favorability among voters, a more significant indicator is the decline for Vance in all areas, particularly in favorability. While 23% of voters view Ryan as Somewhat Unfavorable or Very Unfavorable, 46% hold unfavorable views of Vance, with 30% of those saying they have a Very Unfavorable view. By contrast, only 12% of voters are Very Unfavorable to Ryan.

With the election set to be close in November, independent voters will play a key role, and Ryan saw a significant increase with those voters, improving his lead from +8 in July (36% to 28%) to +21 (39% to 17%).

“This is the second poll this week where we’ve seen voters moving away from Senate candidates that are extreme and have little or no recent roots in the state in which they’re running,” said Center Street Co-Founder Matt O’Brien. “While Vance’s numbers aren’t quite as dismal as Oz in Pennsylvania, they’re quickly moving in that direction.”

Vance’s favorability even fell among Republicans, with 75% viewing him as Somewhat or Very Favorable in July. In August, that number fell to only 62%. Meanwhile, Ryan’s favorability among Republican voters increased to an above average score.

 “Between Vance’s bad press coverage and voters’ lack of trust in him, even Republicans are realizing he’s a bad choice for Ohio,” says Center Street Co-Founder Jacob Perry. “In every poll we’ve done since May, no matter how you cut the data, no matter what the partisan weighting, the trend is clear: Ryan’s getting stronger while Vance is getting weaker. Even their fundraising and media spends are indicative of both campaigns’ trajectories. Ryan still has work to do to move marginal voters to him, but everything is working in his favor.”

Another significant development shows Ohio Democrats are more motivated to vote in 2022 than Republicans, 62% to 57%.While Republicans still have more motivated voters in the absolute, the enthusiasm advantage has evaporated from +12% in May to +3% in August.

“These results suggest two things: Ryan’s early jump in investment has significantly improved his standing with Ohio voters,” said Center Street Chief Analytics Officer Dr. Kurt Jetta. “Ryan still has some work to do in converting marginal voters to full support, but based on the growth we see in Ryan’s awareness and favorability, he seems to be effectively executing his plan.”

Center Street has developed an unparalleled data set, led by Dr. Jetta. A 30-year innovator in consumer analytics and former CEO of TABS Analytics, Dr. Jetta applies his consumer analysis developments to political analysis, allowing Center Street to determine and choose a select number of winnable races.

Center Street is a nonpartisan super PAC designed to combat the destructive tribalism threatening democracy by supporting credible candidates, regardless of political party, against extremist challengers and incumbents. Founded by former Republican strategist Jacob Perry and private businessman Matt O’Brien, Center Street advocates for the election of candidates who demonstrate stable and effective governing policies. 


About Center Street PAC

Center Street (www.centerstreetpac.com) is a nonpartisan political action committee designed to combat the destructive tribalism that threatens our democracy. Center Street is focused on beating the extremist incumbents and challengers who divide us by supporting rational political candidates who promote stable and effective governing policies. Center Street’s candidates are Democrats & Republicans who have shown political courage and a willingness to put the country above a party’s interests.