Center Street PAC (www.centerstreetpac.com), a nonpartisan political action committee, released a new poll of Ohio’s U.S. Senate race today, showing Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan (D) leading Republican J.D. Vance 49% to 38% among likely voters, with 14% undecided. Among registered voters, Ryan leads 43% to 35%, with 22% undecided.
In Center Street’s early September poll, voter enthusiasm was about even, with 62% of Republican voters saying they were motivated to vote, compared to 61% of Democrats. By the end of the month, Democratic enthusiasm jumped to 67%, while Republicans’ stalled at 62%.
“It will be interesting to see if Democrats can hold that enthusiasm advantage in Ohio, because they’ll need to, in order for Ryan to win,” said Center Street Co-Founder Jacob Perry. “When you look at registered voters, candidate preference is about the same as in early September. But among likely voters, Ryan jumped five points. That increase comes entirely from Democrats’ motivation to vote, not a surge of excitement about Ryan, specifically.”
As with other Trump-endorsed candidates, such as Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Blake Masters in Arizona, Ryan’s large preference lead is a function of Democratic candidates’ favorability advantage. In Ohio, 30% of registered voters view Vance as “Very Unfavorable,” compared to 19% who view Ryan as “Very Unfavorable.”
“We’re seeing more persuadable voters – those who are either unaware or don’t have a strong opinion about a candidate one way or another – than in most races we’re tracking. We could see significant shifts in preference as we get closer to election day, but for now things are fairly static,” said Center Street Co-Founder Matt O’Brien.
Male voters’ favorability views of Ryan and Vance are roughly equal, while Ryan’s advantage rests largely on his favorability advantage among women voters.
“The strongly unfavorable views will continue to be a drag on Vance’s poll numbers, but it’s not as catastrophic for him as that measure is for Oz and Masters in their respective races,” said Center Street Chief Analytics Officer Dr. Kurt Jetta. “The flip side is that anti-Ryan ads have done their job, resulting in a 5-point increase in the number of voters who strongly dislike him, and some of that bleed came from the important independent voters. To win, Ryan must prevent any further erosion of his favorability.”
Center Street has developed an unparalleled data set, led by Dr. Jetta. A 30-year innovator in consumer analytics and former CEO of TABS Analytics, Dr. Jetta applies his consumer analysis developments to political analysis, allowing Center Street to determine and choose a select number of winnable races.
Center Street is a nonpartisan super PAC designed to combat the destructive tribalism threatening democracy by supporting credible candidates, regardless of political party, against extremist challengers and incumbents. Founded by former Republican strategist Jacob Perry and private businessman Matt O’Brien, Center Street advocates for the election of candidates who demonstrate stable and effective governing policies.
Methodology: Between Oct. 2-3, 2022, 1,183 adults 18 and older were surveyed, including 950 registered voters and 528 likely voters. Results are now weighted to age/gender of U.S. Census and then by 2020 Presidential vote preference. Therefore, Waves 1 and 2 have been restated, as Wave 2 sample showed a significant bias toward Biden voters. All results will have 2020 stated voter preference aligned with Actual (53% Trump/45% Biden). Ohio voters do not declare a party when they register. Therefore, stated party is only based on party identification. Source: Center Street PAC via Momentiv AI.