POLL: Rep. Tim Ryan Leads JD Vance in Ohio Senate Race 43% to 34%

COLUMBUS, Ohio – (July 7, 2022) – A new poll from nonpartisan political action committee Center Street PAC (www.centerstreetpac.com) shows Democrat Tim Ryan leads his Republican opponent J.D. Vance in the race for Ohio’s U.S. Senate seat. Congressman Ryan, who represents Ohio’s 13th District, is at 43% versus Vance’s 34%, and saw improvements in almost every factor and voter group. The poll shows 23% of Ohio voters are currently undecided.

Methodology: Between May 13, 2022 and July 3, 2022, four waves of 600-1,200 Registered adults aged 18+ were surveyed.
Responses were weighted to Ohio Census representation. Source: Momentive Online Surveys for Center Street PAC

Rep. Ryan’s primary advantage lies in his Favorability rating. In the four statewide Ohio polls Center Street has conducted since May, the Favorability gap between Ryan and Vance has widened. Ryan’s Favorability has been consistently positive, with continual improvement, while Vance has high Unfavorable ratings which continue to erode.

“Tim Ryan’s advantage is pretty simple. Ohio voters seem to like him, and the same cannot be said about his opponent,” says Center Street Co-Founder Jacob Perry.

Methodology: Between May 13, 2022 and July 3, 2022, four waves of 600-1,200 Registered adults aged 18+ were surveyed.
Responses were weighted to Ohio Census representation. Source: Momentive Online Surveys for Center Street PAC
Methodology: Between May 13, 2022 and July 3, 2022, four waves of 600-1,200 Registered adults aged 18+ were surveyed.
Responses were weighted to Ohio Census representation. Source: Momentive Online Surveys for Center Street PAC

“In our assessment, the pessimism about Ryan’s prospects is based solely on national factors,” says Center Street Chief Analytics Officer Dr. Kurt Jetta. “The data on Ohio voter sentiments suggests, at worst, this race is a tossup for Ryan, and I would say he’s even a bit ahead and improving in almost every voter group.”

Despite Ryan’s sizeable lead, a large number of undecided and persuadable voters could make a difference. While undecided voters tend to wait until the last minute to choose, persuadable voters are those without enough information to form a strong favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates.

Another factor in the race will be voter motivation, which is an enhanced Likely Voter model, measuring likelihood to vote based on respondents’ attitudes towards voting. “Motivated Voter” preference was in Vance’s favor in May, with 47% for Vance versus Ryan’s 43%. However, by July, it had swung to Ryan, with 49% for Ryan versus 40% for Vance.

Methodology: Between May 13, 2022 and July 3, 2022, four waves of 600-1,200 Registered adults aged 18+ were surveyed.
Responses were weighted to Ohio Census representation. Source: Momentive Online Surveys for Center Street PAC

“The one saving grace for Vance is that Republicans are still more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats,” says Dr. Jetta. “But that gap is narrowing.”

In May, 66% of Republicans had high motivation to vote versus 54% of Democrats. But those numbers closed to a 5-point gap in July, with 61% for Republicans and 56% for Democrats.

Methodology: Between May 13, 2022 and July 3, 2022, four waves of 600-1,200 Registered adults aged 18+ were surveyed. Responses were weighted to Ohio Census representation. Source: Momentive Online Surveys for Center Street PAC

Center Street has developed an unparalleled data set, led by Dr. Jetta. A 30-year innovator in consumer analytics and former CEO of TABS Analytics, Dr. Jetta applies his consumer analysis developments to political analysis, allowing Center Street to determine and choose a select number of winnable races.

“One of the ways Center Street differs from other PACs is in our targeted approach to races,” says Center Street Co-Founder Matt O’Brien. “We’re using a unique analytics model that allows us to identify races where our involvement can make a difference and result in wins, and we believe Tim Ryan can win in Ohio.”

Center Street is a nonpartisan super PAC designed to combat the destructive tribalism threatening democracy by supporting credible candidates, regardless of political party, against extremist challengers and incumbents. Founded by former Republican strategist Jacob Perry and private businessman Matt O’Brien, Center Street advocates for the election of candidates who demonstrate stable and effective governing policies. 

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About Center Street PAC

Center Street (www.centerstreetpac.com) is a nonpartisan political action committee designed to combat the destructive tribalism that threatens our democracy. Center Street is focused on beating the extremist incumbents and challengers who divide us by supporting rational political candidates who promote stable and effective governing policies. Center Street’s candidates are Democrats & Republicans who have shown political courage and a willingness to put the country above a party’s interests.