PHOENIX, Ariz. – (Aug. 10, 2022) – A new poll from Center Street PAC, a non-partisan political action committee, shows Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) has 14% margin over venture capitalist Blake Masters in the race for Arizona’s U.S. Senate seat. Kelly leads 54% to 40% among Likely Voters, with only 7% undecided. The data follows the recent polling trend in Ohio and Pennsylvania U.S. Senate races, where Democratic candidates have significant leads over Republicans who were expected to be favorites.
“You’d think this would be an easy win for Masters. Arizona is deep red and not exactly hostile to populist extremists, but we have another state where it’s reversed,” said Center Street Co-Founder Matt O’Brien.
While Masters is well behind Kelly in Preference, he has an opportunity to pick up votes among a high percentage of undecided voters expected to break for him. Also, Masters’ Favorability numbers are not as bleak as Oz’s.
“We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: once voters get to know these MAGA candidates, they don’t like them,” said Center Street Co-Founder Jacob Perry. “Once more Arizona voters get to know Masters and see what an extremist he is, we think Arizona will go blue, in this race at least.”
Masters also benefits from an advantage in voter enthusiasm, with 62% who say they are excited to vote for Masters against 57% for Kelly.
“Republican voters still outpace Democrats in voter motivation, not only in Arizona, but in almost every state we’ve polled. The only time we’ve seen Democrats with the advantage was in Ohio last week,” said Dr. Jetta.
While 46% of Arizona voters view Kelly Somewhat Favorably or Very Favorably (20%/26%), only 30% hold that view for Masters. Of those, only 13% view Master Very Favorably. Meanwhile, 44% of voters have a Somewhat Unfavorable (14%) or Very Unfavorable (30%) view of Masters versus 38% Unfavorable (13%/25%) for Kelly.
Kelly’s favorability among Democrats is extremely high, with 77% viewing him favorably, and 50% of those view him Very Favorably. Independents also like Kelly, with 42% viewing him favorably versus 21% who have an unfavorable view. By contrast, only 18% of independents view Masters favorably, with 8% at Very Favorable. Among Republicans, 51% view Masters Somewhat or Very Favorable (28%/23%). Interestingly, while only 12% of Democrats have an unfavorable view of Kelly, 24% of Republicans say Masters is unfavorable.
“The Arizona, Ohio and Pennsylvania races are remarkably similar. In all races, three experienced Democrats have commanding leads against three MAGA neophytes with high Unfavorable scores,” said Center Street Chief Analytics Officer Dr. Kurt Jetta. “The only real difference between Masters and his counterparts in Ohio and Pennsylvania is that he has lower name recognition than Vance and Oz.”
While Oz and Vance’s respective Awareness scores are in the mid-to-high 80s with Pennsylvania and Ohio voters, respectively, only 78% of Arizona voters recognize Masters’ name.
“There are still plenty of persuadable voters in Arizona. With so many similarities among the Arizona, Ohio and Pennsylvania races, it will be interesting to see how Masters proceeds,” said O’Brien. “Will he stay on the sidelines and let his opponent define him, like Vance did in Ohio? Or will Masters engage? And as the voters get to know him, will they like what they see?”
Center Street has developed an unparalleled data set, led by Dr. Jetta. A 30-year innovator in consumer analytics and former CEO of TABS Analytics, Dr. Jetta applies his consumer analysis developments to political analysis, allowing Center Street to determine and choose a select number of winnable races.
Center Street is a nonpartisan super PAC designed to combat the destructive tribalism threatening democracy by supporting credible candidates, regardless of political party, against extremist challengers and incumbents. Founded by former Republican strategist Jacob Perry and private businessman Matt O’Brien, Center Street advocates for the election of candidates who demonstrate stable and effective governing policies.
About Center Street PAC
Center Street (www.centerstreetpac.com) is a nonpartisan political action committee designed to combat the destructive tribalism that threatens our democracy. Center Street is focused on beating the extremist incumbents and challengers who divide us by supporting rational political candidates who promote stable and effective governing policies. Center Street’s candidates are Democrats & Republicans who have shown political courage and a willingness to put the country above a party’s interests.