A new poll from Center Street PAC (www.centerstreetpac.com), a nonpartisan political action committee, shows Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) leads Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) 55% to 36% among likely voters, with 9% of voters undecided, in the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania. Among registered voters, Fetterman leads 50% to 34%, with 16% undecided.
Although the topline preference results are the same as a Center Street poll conducted earlier in September, the race saw interesting shifts among different age and gender demographics. Both Fetterman and Oz made gains in awareness among women ages 18-44, a demographic that also became much less favorable to Oz. By contrast, Fetterman lost in favorability among men over 45 years old.
“As other recent polls have also shown, favorability is a significant issue for Oz, considering 44% of registered voters view him as “strongly unfavorable.’ So Fetterman has a major advantage in likability,” said Center Street Chief Analytics Officer Dr. Kurt Jetta. “Our poll results on preference differ from most – but not all. With such a large gap in favorability between Fetterman and Oz, it stands to reason we’d also see a big gap in preference.”
Fetterman has a sizable advantage over Oz in several areas, first and foremost because Oz is ‘strongly disliked’ by 44% of registered voters. Fetterman also benefits from Democrats’ registration being five points higher in Pennsylvania, and Pennsylvania Democrats are also more enthusiastic, with 68% motivated to vote compared to 61% of Republicans. Oz even loses out on Trump voters, with 32% either undecided or favoring Fetterman. Oz’s only areas of advantage are gains among men, aged 45 and up, and the likelihood that most undecided voters will swing to the Republican column.
Center Street has developed an unparalleled data set, led by Dr. Jetta. A 30-year innovator in consumer analytics and former CEO of TABS Analytics, Dr. Jetta applies his consumer analysis developments to political analysis, allowing Center Street to determine and choose a select number of winnable races.
Center Street is a nonpartisan super PAC designed to combat the destructive tribalism threatening democracy by supporting credible candidates, regardless of political party, against extremist challengers and incumbents. Founded by former Republican strategist Jacob Perry and private businessman Matt O’Brien, Center Street advocates for the election of candidates who demonstrate stable and effective governing policies.
Methodology: Between Sept. 29-30, 2022, 1,169 adults 18 and older were surveyed, including 971 registered voters and 568 likely voters. Results are now weighted to age/gender of U.S. Census and then by 2020 Presidential vote preference. All results will have 2020 Stated Voter Preference aligned with Actual (50% Biden/49%Trump). Source: Center Street PAC via Momentiv AI.