ARIZONA SENATE POLL: Masters Makes Gains with Undecideds, but Unlikely to Overcome Kelly’s Huge Favorability Advantage 

Center Street PAC’s latest poll of the race for Arizona Senate shows incumbent Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D) with a significant preference lead in all polling categories over his Republican challenger, Blake Masters, a week out from the election. Though Masters’ numbers have improved over the past three weeks, Kelly retains an 18-point lead over Masters among registered voters, 54% to 36%, with 10% undecided. When undecided voters, also considered “Leans,” are allocated by 2020 Presidential voting, Kelly’s lead shrinks somewhat to a still-strong 12 points (56% to 44%).

Among likely voters, Kelly leads Masters in both the “without lean” and “with lean” tallies. Likely voters without Lean favor Kelly to Masters 54% to 42%, with just 4% undecided—a 4-point gain for Masters since Oct. 9. Among “lean” voters, Kelly leads 55% to 45%, on a 2-point gain for Masters.

“In this poll we see a big shift in preference towards Masters of four points since three weeks ago,” said Center Street Chief Analytics Officer Dr. Kurt Jetta. “This was expected, as we saw many undecided Republicans return to the fold.”

“The fundamentals of the race haven’t changed however. Kelly has a 10-point lead in preference because he has such a huge advantage in favorability, particularly among the all-important independent/unaffiliated voter segment,” said Dr. Jetta.

“These results closely mirror the Siena/NYT poll that came out today,” said Center Street Co-Founder Jacob Perry. “The only meaningful variance is that our results show a bit more crossover of Republicans to Kelly than does Siena. Otherwise, both polls show iron-clad loyalty to Kelly among Dems and a big Favorability and Preference advantage among unaffiliated voters.”

“Both polls also show that Republicans are significantly more motivated to vote in Arizona than Dems. This advantage, however, is not enough to overcome the low Favorability that Masters has among swing voters,” Perry said.

Center Street has developed an unparalleled data set, led by Dr. Jetta. A 30-year innovator in consumer analytics and former CEO of TABS Analytics, Dr. Jetta applies his consumer analysis developments to political analysis, allowing Center Street to determine and choose a select number of winnable races.

Center Street is a nonpartisan super PAC designed to combat the destructive tribalism threatening democracy by supporting credible candidates, regardless of political party, against extremist challengers and incumbents. Founded by former Republican strategist Jacob Perry and private businessman Matt O’Brien, Center Street advocates for the election of candidates who demonstrate stable and effective governing policies. 

Methodology: Between Oct. 25-30, 2022, 1,168 Arizona adults 18+ were surveyed, including 958 registered voters and 588 likely voters. All data is weighted by both age and gender, then by 2020 voting preference. Lean voter calculations are based on pro-rata allocation undecided voters using 2020 Presidential voting.